Oil Outlook

Interesting piece on Bloomberg about OPEC's failure to agree on production cuts, a situation the author likens to 1998, where oil fell to $10 per barrel. There is also some discussion of future oil prices, and there seems to be a large discrepancy between the analysts respective forecasts. Merrill Lynch sees oil trading at an average of $50 per barrel next year, while Barclays sees the price averaging at $100.50. In my opinion it is good to see divergent analyst estimates, rather than the usual clumping of estimates by analysts who want to play it safe. Nassem Nicholas Taleb has a good discussion of this in his book "The Black Swan", which should be read by all.